What are the current predictions for the housing market?
Fortune compiled data from several large financial institutions and detailed their predictions for where the housing market will be at the end of 2023.
Of the institutions surveyed, Morgan Stanley was the most specific, and provided a 7% drop in housing prices by the end of next year. Goldman Sachs and Moody’s Analytics have home prices decreasing by 5%-to-10% by the end of 2023. While Fitch Ratings was the most bearish with a 10%-to-15% decline in the housing costs.
While this long-term prediction may play out the way the large institutions are claiming, there are areas in the U.S. that have already started to move in the direction of the buyer. Which brings us to the next item in the news…
Buyer’s markets?
Marketwatch has reviewed home sales data and has found the five counties in which the market is slowing the fastest. Three are near the San Francisco Bay area. Alameda County in Oakland, CA has housing prices down 11% from Q2 2022 to Q3 2022, while Santa Clara County in San Jose, CA and Contra Costa County outside of Oakland are also down significantly.
The other counties to make the list include Travis County in Austin, TX and Fairfax County outside of Washington, D.C.
How did Q4 2022 start?
Despite concerning news coming out of Europe and a surprising shift in policy from the new British government, U.S. stocks surged on Monday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average up over 700 points. This was the single best day for stocks since June 24th for the DJIA, and the best day for the S&P 500 since July 27th.
Yields on treasure notes were down slightly, which helped trigger the buying spree. Utilities were the clear leaders among sectors.
As for the mortgage rate market, rates have backed off of 7% that they briefly ticked to last week. A 30-year fixed mortgage rate ended the day at 6.69%, while a 15-year fixed mortgage rate ended the day at 6.08%.
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