Mortgage rates start Thanksgiving week off sideways

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Mortgage rates start the week slowly

Mortgages started this week where they left off last week…and barely moved on Monday. The national average for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.64%, up slightly from the end of last week. Thanksgiving week is typically one of the slowest weeks on the calendar for the bond market, and the same could be true for the mortgage market this year. Traders are still looking for additional guidance coming in December when we get updated inflation numbers and additional guidance from the Federal Reserve.

Are there positives from the recent housing data?

While higher mortgage rates, higher home prices, and low inventory have led to a slow housing market, there are positives to be taken from the recent data.

Inventory has been staying steady for a while. It’s still low, but we’re not seeing available homes start to stack up on the market like we did in the 2008 bubble. Sales are actually in-line with pre-pandemic levels, and higher than 2012 levels. Time on the market is up from 19 days to 21 days on average, so that’s good news to buyers. Cash sales are up from 22% to 26%, so there’s also good news for sellers.

Any guidance from the Federal Reserve?

While we won’t get specific guidance from the Federal Reserve until their next meeting in mid-December, the various officers and presidents of the Fed branches have been talking. Last week, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller claimed that he would be open to reducing the level of interest rate increases to half a percentage point in December, but he also said, “I won’t be making a judgment about that until I see more data.” There may be relief on the way, but next month’s inflation report will likely be a deciding factor.

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