What does the latest housing data say ahead of the Fed meeting?

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What did the Case-Shiller & FHFA housing price indexes say?

Two key housing reports were released on Tuesday.

According to Case-Shiller the national house price index declined to a 7.7% year-over-year increase in November 2022. The Case-Shiller HPI is an economic indicator that measures the change in value of U.S. single-family homes on a monthly basis.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency also announced their November 2022 numbers. They saw that house prices fell 0.1% nationwide in November 2022 when compared to the previous month. Also, housing prices were up 8.2% year-over-year, according to their metrics. The FHFHA HPI is a weighted, repeat-sales index, meaning that it measures average price changes in repeat sales or refinancings on the same properties.

Both of these metrics indicate that housing prices are still elevated from the previous year but are starting to cool off.

Did any metro areas standout in the Case-Shiller HPI?

Yes! Miami, Tampa and Atlanta lead the nation with the largest annual increases in home prices. Miami was up 18.4%, Tampa was up 16.9%, and Atlanta was up 12.4%. However, there were several markets that posted dips across the country.

Comparing month-over-month data for October and November 2022, San Francisco and Phoenix were down 1.4%, and Las Vegas was down 1.2%. In fact, San Francisco has fallen 11.9% from peak prices in May 2022, and is the first Case-Shiller city to post a year-over-year decline, down 1.6%.

When asked about the decline in the national average Lisa Sturtevant, Bright MLS chief economist, stated, “In many local markets across the country, home prices have fallen precipitously from their summer peaks as buyers were forced out of the market due to affordability challenges.

Who’s jumping back into the housing market? Investors or buyers?

According to the team at Yahoo! Finance, buyers are entering back into the housing market while investors are staying on the sidelines.

According to the interview at Yahoo!, this is the opposite of what was seen for most of 2022. Especially for suburban homes priced under $500,000, investors were able to push individual buyers out of the market. That’s not the case right now as aggressively priced homes are seeing 10-to-20 offers when that wasn’t the case in Q4 2022.  

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