Which events & reports could move the market for the week of 5/8 – 5/12?
Inflation metrics on Wednesday should dominate the news cycle, but there are other announcements that should be able to provide the potential for market moving data. The following events, reports and announcements have the potential to influence the market and are as follows:
Monday, May 8th
Wholesale inventories – March 2023
Fed Senior Loan Survey – Q1 2023
Tuesday, May 9th
NFIB optimism index – April 2023
New York Fed President Williams speaks
Wednesday, May 10th
Consumer Price Index – April 2023
Core CPI – April 2023
CPI year over year – April 2023
Core CPI year over year – April 2023
Thursday, May 11th
Producer Price Index – April 2023
Core PPI – April 2023
PPI year over year – April 2023
Core PPI year over year – April 2023
Initial jobless claims – May 6
Continuing jobless claims – April 29
Friday, May 12th
Import price index – April 2023
Import price index minus fuel – April 2023
Cosnumer sentiment (preliminary) – May 2023
April jobs report shows continued growth, lower unemployment rate
The Federal Reserve has three key mandates from the U.S. government. The first is to maintain price stability. The second is moderating interest rates. The third is to achieve maximum employment.
While the first two goals have been a bit of a challenge, the jobs market continues to show growth in jobs created and maintaining a lower unemployment rate.
Data from April released on Friday morning showed that the economy created 253,000 nonfarm jobs and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.4%. The expected metric for jobs created was only 185,000, and the expected unemployment rate was 3.6%. Both metrics were beaten by the actuals.
The gains were led by education and healthcare services which added 77,000 workers last month.
What could this mean for the mortgage and real estate market? Higher unemployment rates are typically associated with lower housing prices. This means that as long as unemployment rates stay low, housing prices could stay elevated. It’s not a guarantee, and housing is a challenge to predict, but most studies have indicated that’s what the relationship between employment and housing looks like.
What do the latest housing market metrics out of Seattle say?
A recent report on the Seattle, WA metro area housing market indicates that prices are starting to cool off. According to the report, 25% of houses sold in Seattle cost less than they would have cost a year ago.
Redfin economist Daryl Fairweather was quoted along with the data, and stated, “The lack of demand because of the high mortgage rates means there are fewer buyers for every home that is on the market. In order for a seller to actually secure a home sale, they have to lower the price to meet buyer expectations.”
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