Which events & reports are scheduled for this week?
While we’re in the middle of earnings season for the stock market, there are other scheduled releases that may impact the market. The following announcements, events, and reports are on the financial calendar for this week:
Monday, October 23rd
None scheduled
Tuesday, October 24th
S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) – August 2023
S&P flash U.S. services PMI – October 2023
S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI – October 2023
Wednesday, October 25th
New home sales – September 2023
Thursday, October 26th
GDP – Q3 2023
Initial jobless claims – Week of Oct. 21
Durable goods orders – September 2023
Durable goods minus transportation – September 2023
Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods – September 2023
Advanced retail inventories – September 2023
Advanced wholesale inventories – September 2023
Pending home sales – September 2023
Friday, October 27th
Personal income – September 2023
Personal spending – September 2023
Have home prices started to drop in Miami?
According to recent data, home prices in Miam-Dade County have fallen for the third month in a row in September. Median sales prices dropped to from $620,000 in August to $600,000 in September for single-family homes in Miami-Dade County. The median sales price for a condominium in Miami-Dade County dropped from $416,000 in August to $415,000 in September.
When asked if this was a trend, Mariya Letdin, a business professor at Florida State University, stated, “Summer historically has been not the hottest time in the market. If this trend continues in the cooler months, then that might be a trend.”
While prices are cooling off, so are home sales in the Miami-Dade County area. There were only 1,984 transactions in the area in September 2023. That’s down almost 9% year-over-year. However, inventory is creeping up slowly. As of September 2023, Miami-Dade had 3.8 months’ worth of houses on the market, and 5.8 months’ worth of condos available. Both of those totals were an improvement from August numbers.
Does rising mortgage rates mean home prices will fall?
It makes sense that rising mortgage rates should cause home prices to drop, but that may not be the case. A recent article from Realtor.com explored the situation, and used data to demonstrate how the situation is currently playing out.
In her weekly analysis of the housing market, Realtor.com’s chief economist, Danielle Hale said, “High home prices continue to compound the sting of high mortgage rates.”
According to recent data, home prices in the U.S. hit a median sale price of $430,000. For the week that ended with October 14th, that number is about the same. However, mortgage rates have slowly creeped towards 8% nationwide over the same time period.
According to Hale, “We have seen the nation’s median listing price grow or remain flat on an annual basis for the past 13 weeks. Taking an even bigger step back, the median listing price has registered within 1% of the prior year’s price since May.”
In the short term, the answer appears to be, “No, higher rates do not mean home prices will fall.” However, seasonal trends have shown that home prices tend to cool off a bit in the winter. There may be relief on the way soon, but the data hasn’t shown that higher mortgage rates come with lower home prices, yet.
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