Is the housing market on the upswing?
According to the most recent housing market data from Altos Research, the market may be starting to emerge from its slumber.
Housing inventory continued to slowly edge up last week with a week-over-week increase of 0.7%. Last year, peak inventory occurred on October 28th. We’re over a week past that date and the number of available homes on the market is continuing to trend upwards. This may well be the peak because available home inventory typically trends downwards into the holiday season.
While the seasonal decline of home sales has started, the drop off is much less steep than last year. The market has a bit more supply on hand, so there may be an opportunity for sales to hold up a bit better during the winter than last year.
Altos is predicting slightly more sales in 2024 than 2023 because the current sales rate is no longer shrinking but starting to expand. However, the recovery looks a bit fragile, and may be impacted if there’s a change in conditions such as a spike in mortgage rates or home prices.
Price reductions on existing homes are following a similar trend line to available home inventory. Currently, 39.1% of homes listed have seen a price reduction. This is still at an elevated range, but it appears that this is about as high as it’s going to get for the year. Price cuts typically slow in the winter months, and given the rate of growth, this appears to be as high as they’re going to get this year.
Which hot housing market is surprisingly affordable?
In the latest hot housing market report from Realtor.com, one newly added market definitely stood out from the rest of the top 20.
The list measures which markets saw the fastest home sales in the country. These are often markets that are popular either for their location, available economic opportunities, or family-focused reasons such as good schools or access to education.
In the list for September 2023, Binghamton, NY came in at the 11th spot in the top 20. Binghamton homes have 2.4 times as many views as the U.S. average, and the median days on the market for a home in the area is only 36 days. These are numbers that indicate a hot market. What’s unique about Binghamton is that the median list price is only $190,000. That’s even more affordable than Rockford, IL or Dayton, OH.
If you’re looking for a hot market in the Northeast that offers affordable housing, Binghamton, NY may be the market for you.
Will mortgage rates cool off in 2024?
A recent report from CBS News reviewed expert predictions for 2024, and developed a few takeaways.
Overall, it’s expected that rates should end 2024 lower than they were in 2023, according to the experts surveyed. However, the degree of how much they change is up for debate.
Nathaniel Pitchon-Getzels, a buyer’s agent and listing agent at Compass, stated, “In 2024, do not anticipate mortgage rates to drop significantly. The current market environment leans towards stability rather than volatility and fear.” Pitchon-Getzels continued, “Before we see rates come down, it’s possible we’ll experience another rate increase. If they do decrease, it’s likely to be a gradual shift, possibly occurring at the end of the second quarter or the beginning of the third quarter.”
Rhonda Fisher, a real estate broker at Trust Equity Group, said, “With a strong employment market and inflation not decreasing as quickly as hoped, it doesn’t appear the Federal Reserve will be able to bring down rates anytime soon. The current rates are slated to continue until next year.” But Fisher also went on to say, “If inflation and the economy weaken then we should expect to see interest rates lower toward the end of 2024.”
While some experts believe mortgage rates may come down next year, it’s unclear exactly how much or when improving conditions for homebuyers will occur. In this case, working with a lender, and finding a home and a mortgage that works for your situation is more important than ever.
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