What are experts predicting for inflation?
According to experts and market watchers, today’s inflation report is expected to fall below 3% for the first time since March 2021. This would represent a significant slowdown since the 3.4% mark set in December 2023.
The ‘core’ numbers that pull out volatile food and gas prices are expected to show a 3.7% rise over the past year. On a monthly basis, core prices are only expected to have risen 0.3%.
When it comes to specific sectors, shelter, meaning housing, is still one of the stickier areas. However, there were positive comments from a note that Bank of America economists Stephen Juneau and Michael Gapen wrote. They duo stated, “The good news is that we expect shelter inflation to moderate over the course of the year given the disinflation seen in asking rent inflation.”
Where are mortgage rates ahead of the inflation report?
The national average for a 30-year, fixed rate mortgage dropped 0.02% to 6.96%* yesterday. The market was clearly waiting for the latest inflation data, and it was clear that traders weren’t looking to jump into heavy positions. Trading wasn’t especially heavy, and the mortgage market drifted downward by the end of the day.
The reaction to the inflation report has the potential to be big, but it’s unclear which direction it will go.
Could home prices rise this Spring?
According to a recent article from Business Insider, we could see the median home price in the U.S. rise by as much as 5% this Spring. The article stated that a weak 2023 housing market has the potential to cause a rush into the Spring.
If mortgage rates continue to cool and more buyers enter the market, there’s a chance for us to re-enter a market that heavily favors sellers. However, if rates do head lower, some sellers sitting on the sidelines may choose to jump back in.
When it comes to market activity, Redfin’s chief economist Daryl Fairweather, feels that the worst is going to stay in 2023, and brighter days are ahead. Fairweather said, “I think we hit rock bottom and the only way to go from here is up.”
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