How did mortgage rates react to fresh inflation data?

Candlestick chart and data of financial market | mortgage rate news

What did January 2024 inflation data say?

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index from January 2024 was released yesterday. The report shows that costs excluding food and energy rose 0.4%, and 2.8% from a year ago. This is still off from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target but didn’t show any massive spikes or areas of great concern for the market.

The headline PCE, that includes food and energy costs, increased 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% yearly.

Personal income also rose 1%, crushing the 0.3% forecast, while spending decreased 0.1%, missing the 0.2% forecast.

Stephen Gallagher, chief U.S. economist for Societe Generale, stated, “Overall, [the report] is meeting the expectations, and some of the worst fears in the market weren’t met. The key is we’re not seeing the broad nature of increases that we had been more fearful of.”

How did mortgage rates react to inflation data?

The national average for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rate dipped 0.05% to 7.10%* yesterday. The day began the day with bonds in weaker territory but rallied after the early economic data. The rally helped the mortgage rate market find direction, and it ended the day lower than it started.

Next week Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell will testify to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. That’s the next event that may provide clear direction for the bond market.


Housing inventory saw the biggest spike in 3 years


Recent data showed that new home listings for sale in February 2024 increased 12.9% year-over-year, while total home inventory also increased.

This bodes very well for the upcoming Spring market, as the market has struggled with available inventory.

Brynn Rea, a Redfin real estate agent in Spokane, WA, said, “House hunters are out there, and competition picks up every time mortgage rates decline a bit. I’m telling buyers who can afford it to look now while they have more breathing room and less competition.”


* National average rates accurate as of 2/29/24 from and are not advertised rates from Guaranteed Rate.

in 10 minutes?

The pre-approval process is lightning fast, and can be completed
in under 10 minutes. Grab a few important documents to get started.
  1. Tax Returns
  2. Copies of W-2s (or 1099s for independent contractors,
    freelancers and the self-employed)
  3. A payroll stub
  4. A bank statement
  5. Loan obligation info (student loans,
    auto loans and credit cards)

Applicant subject to credit and underwriting approval. Not all applicants will be approved for financing. Receipt of application does not represent an approval for financing or interest rate guarantee. Restrictions may apply. 

All information provided in this publication is for informational and educational purposes only, and in no way is any of the content contained herein to be construed as financial, investment, or legal advice or instruction. Guaranteed Rate does not guarantee the quality, accuracy, completeness or timelines of the information in this publication. While efforts are made to verify the information provided, the information should not be assumed to be error-free. Some information in the publication may have been provided by third parties and has not necessarily been verified by Guaranteed Rate. Guaranteed Rate its affiliates and subsidiaries do not assume any liability for the information contained herein, be it direct, indirect, consequential, special, or exemplary, or other damages whatsoever and howsoever caused, arising out of or in connection with the use of this publication or in reliance on the information, including any personal or pecuniary loss, whether the action is in contract, tort (including negligence) or other tortious action.