Where does the data say home prices are headed?

Westlake in Seattle | mortgage rate news

Where are home prices heading?

Altos Research released its weekly housing market report, and the most recent edition showed the start of an interesting trend in home prices. The current home price signals indicate that we’re heading for flat growth.

The median price of homes on the market is sitting at $450,000. That’s virtually unchanged from last year. However, the median price of homes in contract is at about $393,000. The market is priced higher than the average price of homes on the market. This indicates that home prices of homes that are selling are lower than the where the market is at. If this trend continues, 2024 could be a repeat of 2023 home prices instead of continuing to see home prices continue to rise.

When it comes to inventory, the current housing market for single-family homes was at just over 559,000 available units last week. That’s a 33% increase when compared to last year at the same time.

On the new listing front, the housing market saw 71,000 new listings added this week. That’s down slightly week-over-week, but represented a 21% increase over the same time period last year.

Where did mortgage rates start this week?

The national average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage ended Monday down 0.03% to 7.25%*. Yesterday’s trading was described as ‘an uneventful start to what may be an uneventful week’.

We don’t get the next major data point until the middle of next week. Until then, it will take a major unscheduled event or announcement to get the market to really move. Unless we get an outside force pushing the market, we’re unlikely to see much activity, but the market could always surprise us.

Is the Seattle housing market starting to pick up?

According to recent data, the Seattle market is starting to get more active as we head deeper into the Spring season. Of the different areas in the Seattle metro area, four out of five had more activity in April 2024 than April 2023. North King County saw a 29.8% improvement in closed sales, while Southwest King County was the only area to show a decrease. The Southwest King County area posted a 3.9% decline year-over-year.

However, when it comes to home prices, all five areas show an increase year-over-year. The Eastside area posted a 15.7% increase in the median home price when comparing April 2024 to April 2023.

Overall, the median home price in the Seattle metro area was $997,000, up 13% from April 2023.

* National average rates accurate as of 5/6/24 from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are not advertised rates from Guaranteed Rate.

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