What’s on the financial calendar this week?
The following announcements, events, and reports may have an impact on the mortgage market this week:
Monday, June 10th
None scheduled
Tuesday, June 11th
NFIB optimism index – May 2024
Wednesday, June 12th
Consumer price index – May 2024 & year-over-year
Core CPI – May 2024 & year-over-year
FOMC interest rate decision
Monthly U.S. federal budget
Fed Chair Jerome Powell press conference
Thursday, June 13th
Initial jobless claims – Week of June 8th
Producer price index – May 2024 & year-over-year
Core PPI – May 2024 & year-over-year
Friday, June 14th
Import price index – May 2024
Import price index minus fuel – May 2024
Consumer sentiment – June 2024
What is the latest prediction for this week’s inflation data?
The market gets another round of inflation data right before this week’s FOMC meeting. While market watchers are expecting the Fed to keep interest rates steady for another month, what are they predicting for the latest inflation data release?
Investors would like to see inflation data, due on Wednesday, show some degree of cooling. Paul Christopher, head of global market strategy at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, stated, “The market would like some clarity and not see the Fed have to wait until December or January to begin cutting rates.”
Jobs data came in a bit stronger than expected last week. If inflation data follows suit, we may have to wait until the end of the year to get the Fed to start cutting mortgage rates. However, if we start to see a cooling trend, the interest rate cut timetable may move up.
Is the housing market becoming more affordable?
According to a recent article from USA Today, we may be seeing a softer housing market in certain areas over the next few months.
While inventory levels still need to improve for a more balanced market, affordable housing is on the rise. Danielle Hale, the chief economist at Realtor.com, stated, “The share of inventory of smaller and more affordable homes has grown, which helps hold down the median price even as per-square-foot prices grow further. Some much-welcomed news for prospective buyers.”
The current market is showing a year-over-year increase in homes priced at the $200,000 to $350,000 levels of 46.6%. However, some regions have more inventory available than others.
In May 2024, 12 metro areas have seen inventory exceed pre-pandemic levels. Austin, San Antonio, and Denver had more options on the market last month than they did before the pandemic hit.
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