What should we expect from the housing market in the 2nd half of 2024?

What are experts predicting for the 2^nd half of 2024?

2024 is almost halfway to the finish line, but what can we expect from the housing market over the next six months? A recent article from CNBC tackled this exact issue and spoke with several experts on the subject.

Glenn Kelman, chief executive of Redfin, was very positive about his second half outlook. He stated, “Mostly, we think the housing market is going to improve over the next half of the year. We’ve hit rock bottom in the first quarter of 2024 and I would expect the housing market to do a little bit better.”

However, Jeff Ostrowski, a housing analyst at Bankrate was a bit less sure. Ostrowski said, “It’s a very strange market, and it’s kind of hard to predict.”

One of the few facts about the housing market that everyone is in agreement on is that home inventory has been gaining in strength this year. Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, wrote, “Listings have trended generally upward of late, suggesting to us that a rising number of current homeowners can no longer put off moving. However, we believe the ongoing affordability challenges are likely to weigh on how quickly these new listings convert to actual sales.”

When it comes to mortgage rates, Jessica Lautz, the National Association of Realtors deputy economist, predicts some movement in the late summer. She said that by late September, “perhaps we will start seeing movement on the Fed funds rate. That’s at least what our hope is.”

When can homebuyers expect a dip in mortgage rates?

According to an article from the New York Post, a lot needs to happen for mortgage rates to really cool off, but it’s not anything unattainable.

Reporters spoke to Evan Luchaco, a home loan specialist at Churchill Mortgage, and asked what would need to happen. Luchaco stated that in order “to see rates improve, we need to see inflation numbers decreasing, new job creations slowing down, and potentially unemployment filings increasing.”

Jennifer Beeston, senior vice president of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate, agreed, and said, “in order for rates to come down, we need to see inflation ease.” However, Beeston also noted that past predictions have often failed, and there’s always uncertainty to rate forecasts.

How much equity have homeowners gained this year?

Home equity closed at a record high at the end of Q1 2024, according to a recent article from Investment News. The article went into further detail and stated that over the past 12 months homeowners have gained about $28,000 in equity to their home on average.

Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic, said, “Importantly, higher prices have also lifted some 190,000 homeowners out of negative equity, leaving only about 1.8% of those with mortgages underwater. Home equity is key to mortgage holders who have seen other homeownership costs soar, including insurance, taxes and HOA fees, as a source of financial buffer.”