What’s on this week’s financial calendar?
The market takes a day off for Independence Day, but we’ll also get a lot of employment data this week. The following announcements, events, and reports are on the calendar for the upcoming week:
Monday, July 1st
S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI – June 2024
Construction spending – May 2024
ISM manufacturing – June 2024
Tuesday, July 2nd
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech in Portugal
Job openings – May 2024
Auto sales – June 2024
Wednesday, July 3rd
New York Fed President John Williams speech in Portugal
ADP employment – June 2024
Initial jobless claims – week of June 29th
U.S. trade deficit – May 2024
S&P final U.S. services PMI – June 2024
Factory orders – May 2024
ISM services – June 2024
Minutes of Fed’s June FOMC meeting
Thursday, July 4th
None scheduled, July 4th holiday
Friday, July 5th
New York Fed President John Williams speech in India
U.S. employment report – June 2024
U.S. unemployment rate – June 2024
U.S. hourly wages – June 2024 & year-over-year
Where were mortgage rates at the end of June?
According to a recent report from CBS news, the rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is at a two-month low. Rates peaked in October 2023 and have seen a lot of up and down movement since then, but they have dipped after the most recent round of inflation data.
Rates will likely stay at or near current levels unless the market is hit by an unforeseen event. The next round of key data points on employment at the end of the week, and that could give the market direction heading into the second week of July.
What’s the current outlook for mortgage rates in the summer?
Inflation and jobs data have shown signs of cooling. Mortgage rates have ticked lower since the peak that was hit in the Spring. So, what does the rest of the summer have in store for mortgage rates and the housing market? The Business Journals interviewed Thomas Eller, the vice president and senior mortgage loan officer at Raleigh’s North State Bank, and got his take on what we could see unfold as the calendar moves deeper into the summer.
Eller stated, “You’re probably going to see a lot of pressure be put on the Fed to put some more certainty behind a rate probability cut, which will be in September. If we don’t get that, we think we’ll get one in the November cycle. Rates are going to be cut this year unless something happens with the next July inflation report. We’ve been saying every month, ‘Well, we’re going to have to wait and see what happens next month.’”
When it comes to the future for mortgages, Eller said, “It’s all positive news as far as what’s on the horizon, what’s going on in our world. Basically, the Fed has said, ‘Guys, we’re very close. We just want to know we’re heading in the right direction,’” and July’s inflation numbers will dictate how they react.”
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