Which events are on this week’s financial calendar?
The following announcements, events and reports are scheduled for the week for 5/6/24 – 5/10/24. These economic events may have an impact on the mortgage market or the greater financial markets.
Monday, May 6th
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks
New York Fed President John Williams speaks
Tuesday, May 7th
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks
Consumer credit – March 2024
Wednesday, May 8th
Wholesale inventories – March 2024
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks
Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaks
Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks
Thursday, May 9th
Initial jobless claims – Week of May 4th
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks
Friday, May 10th
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks
Consumer sentiment – May 2024
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaks
Monthly U.S. federal budget – April 2024
Where did mortgage rates end last week?
The national average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage ended last week down 0.09% to 7.28%*. This is the lowest that the national average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage has been since April 9th.
Last week’s slightly weaker economic data spurred a rally in the bond market which impacted the mortgage market.
We get a lot of Fedspeak this week, but not a lot of hard data to really move the market. The next major data release doesn’t come until we get inflation data on May 13th.
What are the latest expert predictions on mortgage rates?
A recent article from U.S. News and World Report surveyed some of the top data sources in the mortgage industry for predictions on where mortgage rates will go based on the most recent information from the Federal Reserve.
Fannie Mae has the national average for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage ending the year at 6.4%, this is slightly higher than their previous predictions. Hamilton Fout, the vice president of Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group, said, “While we still expect economic growth and inflation to moderate going forward – and, thus, for mortgage rates to drift downward – interest rates existing in a ‘higher for longer’ state seems to be an increasingly real possibility in the eyes of market participants, as well as some homebuyers and sellers.”
The MBA also has mortgage rates ending the year at 6.4%. MBA economists stated, “We made significant changes to our forecast in April as a result of recent data showing surprisingly persistent inflation in the context of a strong job market. Most notably, we are now looking for a first rate cut from the Fed in September of 2024, pushed back from our prior forecast of a June cut, and expecting only two rather than three cuts this year.”
Wells Fargo economists have mortgage rates ending the year at 6.5%. In a forecast update, the Wells Fargo research team wrote, “Although policy easing may arrive a bit later than previously expected, we still believe the FOMC will start cutting rates before the year is out. We expect inflation to trend lower throughout the year, but progress will likely be gradual.”
The bottom line on mortgage rates appears to be that if you need a home or have found your dream home, it’s okay to jump into the market. However, experts are predicting rates to cool in the next six months, and if you can afford to wait, it may make sense to hold off for now. It’s also important to keep in mind that predictions can and have already started to change.
* National average rates accurate as of 5/3/24 from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are not advertised rates from Guaranteed Rate.
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